After covid 19 ravaged the world economy and made significant socioeconomic changes that occurred once in a century a new global phenomena occurred.
Covid 19 was part of very significant global “push” factor which motivated a global migration crisis. It motivated immigrants to leave their home countries towards nations with better economic and medical facilities.
The pandemic in India itself in 2020 from the covid delta variant resulted in a large scale collapse of the health care system and a subsequent load on the economy. Right after the pandemic in 2020, Canada registered a significant mass jump in the number of temporary resident applications into the country in 2021 and 2022 which was almost double the annual expected qouta for temporary residents for Canada. In 2021 alone Canada invited 924,850 temporary residents and in 2022 this number remained stable at the 900k mark. Both of these numbers are double of the regular Temporary residents approved annually of about 400k thousand per year. Not to mention Canada’s economy of only 30 million was unable to absorb the influx, endured a housing crisis in the metropolitan areas, increasing the cost of housing for local residents, the cost of health care and the burden on the local tax payers. The economic situation escalated such so that currently in the year 2025, Canada has capped the yearly TFWP permits by almost 70% of the regular cap (historically low) and has put in stringent conditions in place to avoid the study permit fraud that was prevalent in both 2021 and 2022.
In the United States, right after the pandemic in 2021, H1b approvals were at about 398,267, in 2022 it was about 442,043, mostly from countries with a ‘push factor’ for migration post the pandemic including India. This number remained stable at the 400k mark in 2024 and dipped slightly in 2023 to 200k approvals.
In Germany, one of the popular EU locations, the work permit approvals increased from 90k in 2021 post pandemic upto 123k in 2024.
It is interesting to note, that around this time, in all of these countries as immigration increased due to external push factors, the political environment began tilting increasingly towards the conservative parties and in some cases towards the right wing Parties.
In Canada alone in 2024 before the 2025 federal elections, the economic pressure and inflation due to the sudden influx of temporary workers resulted in the largest jump for the conservatives who were projected to win the 2025 elections by a majority obliterating the liberal party of Canada which came in with the lowest poll results.
In the United states, Donald J Trump gained increasing popularity around 2024 for his second term with the propogation of his ‘MAGA’ rhetoric and his priority of limiting immigration in the USA the results of which we are seeing currently.
In Germany in 2024, the far right wing AFD party of Germany gained an astonishing 1/3rd majority in its entire history since world war 2 setting a historical precedent that was to be watched out for. One can think that Germany should be worried more about the AFD party than the immigrants.
2025 AND THE TURN AROUND
The year 2025 became historic with almost all pull factored nations i.e., USA, Canada, Australia, Germany , constricting their immigration policies simultaneously.
Canada, despite being led by the liberal party of Canada, the same party that had lax immigration in the previous term, has committed to a complete 180 turn around in its immigration policies. With even study permits becoming increasingly difficult to come by and visa officers practicing adjunct alertness in applications.
The United states, is a hot topic as always on the news with its ever changing immigration policies related to H1B’s, its ICE deportations, and the 100,000$ H1B fee along with the general atmosphere of insecurity for American companies. Not to mention its probe into H1B visa fraud.
Which brings us to the real burning question – WHY IS THIS HAPPENING?
LETS START HERE
Why do nations enact immigration laws? Is it because they are humanitarian or care about other people ?
The Immigration and Refugee Protection Act of Canada defines in its second section the purpose for which the law was enacted to maximize the economic benefits that come with immigration“
The Immigration and Nationality ACT of the United States defines its purpose for which the law was enacted as centered on admitting immigrants who possess skills beneficial to the U.S. economy and promoting economic growth.
Germany’s immigration statutes, primarily the Skilled Immigration Act (Skilled Labour Immigration Act or Fachkräfteeinwanderungsgesetz), are heavily oriented toward addressing the nation’s severe shortage of skilled workers to maintain economic growth and stability.
Before we as emotional beings become entangle ourselves in causations of racism, nationalism, right wing authoritarianism and the media rhetoric on every politician, we need to open the statute of immigration of every nation that was enacted. The statute in its primary purposes or definitions defines WHY it is in place in the first place and for the purpose of achievement of what?
In the above 3 examples, economic progress without the cost to citizens and permanent residents is a primary expectation of statute. It means one thing- if immigration becomes an economic cost, then the statute fails to deliver its purpose, the regulations come into place, ordinances can be enacted overnight to change the laws as such to achieve the primary purpose of the statute. This generally does not mean that anything about the process is humanitarian in nature. Infact, Immigration laws historically have been voraciously racist, dynamic and exploitative in nature with large backlogs in federal courts for appeals. If one believes the 100,000$ per head H1B visa policy is a draconian policy in the USA, then one should flip the books and read on the Canadian Chinese head tax which was a similar 100 year old Canadian immigration policy. Safe to say the USA is practicing in immigration what Canada practiced about 100 years ago.
what about the rise of the right wing?
The rise of the right wing is not reported to be historically a simple affair. The rise of right wing parties and conservatism is deeply tied to national economic interests, job creation and the satisfaction of the inland citizens and residents with their own lives. In effect, when immigration becomes inefficient and an economic cost to the permanent inland population in a way that the effects are rather obvious then right wing authoritarianism gains momentum historically.
The general consensus propagated by the media is something like this :
Right Wing = Strict immigration policies
in short = bad people = right wing = hate immigrants.
Reality is something like this :
Inefficient Immigration = Poorer economy felt by the native population = Right wing
Which then leads to
Right Wing = Strict immigration policies
So what is Inefficient immigration?
It is often immigration riddled with fraud. The type of immigration which fails to achieve its purpose in the statute. Fraudulent immigration and abuse of the system leads to the demography of population which in the long term causes economic costs to the local population.
In Canada a lot of what we are seeing today has to do with the study permit fraud in 2021 and 2022 which accounted for almost 73000 students on a permit unaccounted for by the government and an influx of a population which were economic non contributors. The sudden increase in housing prices and the inflation in the markets made the experience of the common man significantly different from the past few years. Since Canada is a socialized country, health care wait times increased and so did the health care costs, leading in turn to higher taxes. As healthcare costs increased, insurance for healthcare became more costly leading to companies less likely to invest in the Canadian economy leading to a chain domino effect from just 2 yrs of uncontrolled immigration policies.
In the United States, the H1B abuse and fraud system over the years led to an economic change where local companies hired H1B holders for below market value compared to permanent residents. For those wondering if this is a regular practice, the answer is that hiring H1B workers for below the median market wage is fraud. The laws are rather stringent in place for such economic and business activities. A foreign national should not be in direct competition with an inland resident; the foreign national should be hired only after receiving a letter from the synonymous ESDC of the USA stating no other permanent resident is available to do the job, and the foreign national should be paid the median wage or HIGHER than the median wage. Obviously, as we all are familiar with the H1B market, foreign nationals are definitely not paid higher than the median wage. When these things start happening on a large scale, it becomes a local market practice which starts affecting the local populations daily experience in the job market. If you have a government in power that pushes a rhetoric that ignores the experience of the common man, the common man starts leaning towards the right side.
In Germany in 2015, the country brought in almost 2 million refugees and asylum seekers under chancellor Angela Merkel. Many of these asylum seekers were unvetted, formed criminal gangs and terrorized the local public, and took to the streets. Germany failed to enact a proper efficient integration program for these immigrants in a way that would make them efficient contributing members of the German economy. For reference, Germany has a fast ageing population, only 30 million in the workforce and the 2 million asylum seekers who joined Germany ultimately became a liability on the system. The Asylees did not speak German and were not first preference for employees in the job market. The obstacles towards integration became massive for the immigrants. As time went by, the Ukraine war and Russia’s tightening gas switch made things worse including the political woke rhetoric that deflected. The common man in Germany felt it. This led to the greatest rise in power of the far right AFD party of Germany, the original Nazis with a majority win of a historic record 1/3 rd. win since World War 2. In 2025, Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU party), pledged to increase deportations, tighten border controls, and criticized the visual presence of migrants in cities while commenting to a news reporter about migrants and the general consensus on safety with, ‘ask your daughters’.
One might then wonder what IS Efficient Immigration?
In the largest study on best immigration practices conducted at the University of Toronto in 2019, titled the FOCUS study, 700 variables were integrated into a program to find the optimal immigration sweet spot for most nations. The answer was simple but dual-ended. The sweet spot for immigration was bringing in highly educated immigrants who were between the age groups of 18 to 35 years, with 1 point deducted for every year incurred post 35 years of age. The immigrants should be contributing members of the economy and become high taxpayers preferably. Moreover, the host country should have programs in place for removing obstacles faced by the high-contributing immigrants, such as relaxing licensing programs for foreign degrees and universities and faster pathways to green cards and citizenship. The invited immigrant should not be in competition with the local population and should be an active contributor. The key word here is economy. If you want to create a happy inland population who would welcome immigration as a result of beneficial in homeland conditions, such as low cost of living, lots of jobs, low cost healthcare, then the way to do it was to immigrate people efficiently and not mindlessly to push some political agenda.
To be fair, Adolph Hitler gained mass momentum and support in 1933 and came into power when the treaty of Versailles from World War 1 inflicted by other European countries, humiliated Germany and broke its economic back bone in 1919. The German economy was in a deep depression in 1933 with over 37% unemployment. It was then that Germany turned fanatically right wing to the point that almost every common man turned into the Nazi rhetoric.
Of course, just for fun, lets NOT leave aside Soviet Russia. In 1991, the U.S.S.R headed for an economic collapse so massive that the government did not have money to mint your passport if you sent it a passport application.
https://geohistory.today/7-facts-about-the-april-1991-economic-crisis/
Subsequent years there was no president as the U.S.S.R. dissolved and fragmented into pieces. In 1999 Vladimir Putin came into power and remained in power for the next 25 years while pulling Russia out of economic pits. It’s important to note, as Russia’s economic condition improved, left-wing parties came into existence in the country.
To be fair, apart from moralism, and preaching, in the winds of time and in macro global phenomenon it seems that dictators have their place.
Often coming into power with an immediate agenda to ‘turn things around’ or shovel the previous modus operandi at hand at lightening speed and particularly in times of an economic slow down or crisis.
Do keep in mind for future reads, to pine on your ‘alertness and awareness syndrome’ – immigration laws can be overturned overnight through ordinances in place by the federal government, which often means they are the number 1 target when a political change occurs. Mainly because its the easiest thing to change .
WHAT TO EXPECT NEXT?
Due to the global economic downturn and slow down in almost all anglo saxon countries, including Europe, expect a conservative government coming into power and staying in power for the time being .
With that expect tighter and stringent immigration rules for Canada, United states and Europe for the next 5 years at least as global markets recede . Immigration rules are tightly linked to ethnocentrism, so countries in Europe with language specific requirements are likely to always remain difficult immigration targets.
A third once in a century factor to consider, other than the covid 19 pandemic which was also a once in a 100 yr global phenomena which basically led us to where we are right now, is the AI technology and its subsequent effect on the economies of all nations involved. The effects of this technology on the global economy and its impact is yet to be seen, it might curtail immigration but only for those streams which are not required by the host country.
Expect higher demand for research field professionals and doctorates particularly in STEM fields, in the USA and Canada. This would include fast tracked immigration and easier integration rules for proven research professionals including efficient integration.
If you are part of any of the regular H1b bracket, the TFWP bracket of Canada or the EU work permit, who would like to make a move , then SEA is the future including Singapore, with China gaining fast economic momentum.
Your highest bets are:
A country that is NOT ethnocentric and has NO language requirements, this leads to easier integration and easier immigration pathways.
A country which is constitutionally NOT fixed , example the United States. If negative bills will be hard to pass, then major bills to improve the quality of life will also be hard to pass . It means if you are in the cue, then expect to stay in the cue for the longest time due to the nations complicated pathways to logical amendments .
If you’re interested – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FwREAW4SlVY&t=6s
A country with lower university costs, healthcare costs and housing costs
Beyond Borders 